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Published in:

Volume 7 Issue 10
October-2020
eISSN: 2349-5162

Unique Identifier

JETIR2010102

Page Number

817-820

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Title

Potential Impact of Covid-19 on Economic Growth

ISSN

2349-5162

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"Potential Impact of Covid-19 on Economic Growth", International Journal of Emerging Technologies and Innovative Research (www.jetir.org), ISSN:2349-5162, Vol.7, Issue 10, page no.817-820, October-2020, Available :http://www.jetir.org/papers/JETIR2010102.pdf

Abstract

The outbreak of the coronavirus,covid-19,has been declared a pandemic by the WHO.the structures of social contact critically determine the speed of the infectionand, in the absence of vaccines, the control of these structures through large-scale social distancing measures appears to be the most effective means of mitigation. Here we use an age-structure SIR model with social contact matrices obtained from surveys and Bayesian imputation to study the progress of the covid-19 epidemic in India. The basic reproductive ration RO and it’s time-dependent generalization are computed based on case data, age distribution and social contact structure . The impact of social distancing measures - workplace non –attendance, school closure,lockdown– and their efficacy with durations are then investigated. A three week lockdown is found insufficient to prevent a resurgence and, instead, protocols of distance lockdown with period relaxation are suggested forecasts are provided for the reduction in age –structured morbidity and mortality as a result of these measures. Our study underlines the importance of age and social contact structures in assessing the country – specific impact of mitigatory social distancing.

Key Words

Potential Impact of Covid-19 on Economic Growth

Cite This Article

"Potential Impact of Covid-19 on Economic Growth", International Journal of Emerging Technologies and Innovative Research (www.jetir.org | UGC and issn Approved), ISSN:2349-5162, Vol.7, Issue 10, page no. pp817-820, October-2020, Available at : http://www.jetir.org/papers/JETIR2010102.pdf

Publication Details

Published Paper ID: JETIR2010102
Registration ID: 301674
Published In: Volume 7 | Issue 10 | Year October-2020
DOI (Digital Object Identifier):
Page No: 817-820
ISSN Number: 2349-5162

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Cite This Article

"Potential Impact of Covid-19 on Economic Growth", International Journal of Emerging Technologies and Innovative Research (www.jetir.org | UGC and issn Approved), ISSN:2349-5162, Vol.7, Issue 10, page no. pp817-820, October-2020, Available at : http://www.jetir.org/papers/JETIR2010102.pdf




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