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Published in:

Volume 7 Issue 11
November-2020
eISSN: 2349-5162

Unique Identifier

JETIR2011198

Page Number

481-489

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Title

Statistical Analysis of Severity of Motor Vehicle Accidents in Sri Lanka

ISSN

2349-5162

Cite This Article

"Statistical Analysis of Severity of Motor Vehicle Accidents in Sri Lanka", International Journal of Emerging Technologies and Innovative Research (www.jetir.org), ISSN:2349-5162, Vol.7, Issue 11, page no.481-489, November-2020, Available :http://www.jetir.org/papers/JETIR2011198.pdf

Abstract

Increasing road accidents and traffic flow is a heavy burden to a developing country like Sri Lanka. The objective of this study is to identify the significant factors affecting motor vehicle accidents in Sri Lanka. Secondary data used in this study between the period 2014 to 2016 were acquired from the traffic police headquarters in Sri Lanka. A total number of 78531 motor vehicle accidents were included in the analysis. Factors considered in the study were vehicle type, gender of driver, validity of license, accident cause, alcohol test, time of accident, weekday/weekend, road surface, weather condition, light condition, location and age of driver. Two third of data (52354) was used to develop the model, and the remaining 1/3 of data (26177) was used to validate the model. Severity of accidents was categorized as grievous and non-grievous accidents. Chi-square test of independence has detected that road surface and weather are not significantly associated with the severity of accidents. The light condition variable is removed due to multicollinearity. Binary logistic regression is applied to model the severity of road accidents due to the dichotomous nature of the dependent variable. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.692 which means the fitted model classifies the group significantly better than by chance. The fitted model is correctly predicted 79.9 % of the validation data which is greater than the predictive power of the baseline model 69.8%. Results revealed that vehicle type, the validity of the license, time of the accident, location type, alcohol test, accident cause, age of the driver and gender have a significant effect on the severity of accidents. Moreover, Aggressive or negligent driving, driving on a straight road, driving in the daytime, driving light vehicles have a high chance to be a grievous accident. These findings can aid in modifying laws and establishing preventive approaches in Sri Lanka.

Key Words

accidents, Logistic Regression, Accident severity, Grievous accidents, Non-grievous accidents

Cite This Article

"Statistical Analysis of Severity of Motor Vehicle Accidents in Sri Lanka", International Journal of Emerging Technologies and Innovative Research (www.jetir.org | UGC and issn Approved), ISSN:2349-5162, Vol.7, Issue 11, page no. pp481-489, November-2020, Available at : http://www.jetir.org/papers/JETIR2011198.pdf

Publication Details

Published Paper ID: JETIR2011198
Registration ID: 303493
Published In: Volume 7 | Issue 11 | Year November-2020
DOI (Digital Object Identifier):
Page No: 481-489
ISSN Number: 2349-5162

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Cite This Article

"Statistical Analysis of Severity of Motor Vehicle Accidents in Sri Lanka", International Journal of Emerging Technologies and Innovative Research (www.jetir.org | UGC and issn Approved), ISSN:2349-5162, Vol.7, Issue 11, page no. pp481-489, November-2020, Available at : http://www.jetir.org/papers/JETIR2011198.pdf




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