• SHYJU MATHEW

The current study focuses on estimating trends and growth rates in harvested area, production and productivity of natural rubber (Hevea Brasiliensis) in Kerala from 1991-92 to 2015-16, employing parametric models. Among the parametric models, various linear, non-linear and time-series models are used for the investigation. On the basis of co-efficient of determination (R2), adjusted R2 and significant regression co-efficients, the statistically best-fitted parametric models are selected. After checking the data for stationarity, the best suited time-series models are selected on the basis of goodness of fit criteria, namely, Akaike’s Information Criterion, Hannan-Quinn Criterion (HQC), Shapiro-Wilks Test (SW), Root Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Error and assumptions of normality of residuals. Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is used for time series models in order to examine trends in harvested area, production and productivity. The best models (p,d,q) are determined and tabulated on the basis of Information Criteria. On the basis of residual analysis, the randomness is tested. The natural rubber production has slightly increased at the rate of 0.73% per annum during 1992-93 to 2015-16. It is the result of a collective effect of marginal increases in harvested area and productivity at a rate of 1.47 and 0.87 % per annum, respectively

Akaike’s Information Criterion; Hannan-Quinn Criterion; Shapiro-Wilks Test; Run Test

"PARAMETRIC MODELLING TO ANALYSE TRENDS IN HARVESTED AREA, PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY OF NATURAL RUBBER IN KERALA", International Journal of Emerging Technologies and Innovative Research (www.jetir.org), ISSN:2349-5162, Vol.6, Issue 5, page no.313-317, May - 2019, Available :http://www.jetir.org/papers/JETIRCN06058.pdf

"PARAMETRIC MODELLING TO ANALYSE TRENDS IN HARVESTED AREA, PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY OF NATURAL RUBBER IN KERALA", International Journal of Emerging Technologies and Innovative Research (www.jetir.org | UGC and issn Approved), ISSN:2349-5162, Vol.6, Issue 5, page no. pp313-317, May - 2019, Available at : http://www.jetir.org/papers/JETIRCN06058.pdf