• Adam Ishaya Dansadiq
• Ahmed, Martins
• Rilwanu, Yakubu Mohammed

Abstract This paper aims at building a model that can predict cases of Covid-19 in North-Central States of Nigeria including Abuja, the Federal Capital. Data was obtained from the National Center for Disease Control and converted to percentages. Multiple Linear Regression was employed using R. The prediction model is: Confirmed Cases (yˆi ) = - 0.003198 + 0.02566 Active + 0.9640 Recovered + 0.01045 Deaths. Parameter associated with active variable βˆ1(0.02566) is positive; it is the effect of the virus on confirmed cases adjusting for other predictors. A unit increase in number of active cases, brings about an average increase in number of confirmed cases by 25.66%; with recovered and death cases held constant. Increase in number of recovered cases by 1 unit, increases confirmed cases by an average unit of 96.66%; with active and death cases held constant. An increase of death cases by 1 unit, gives an average increase of 1.01% in confirmed cases, with active and recovered cases held constant. In conclusion, recovered cases have greater influence on the value of confirmed cases compared to other variables based on empirical results. With predictor variables set at zero (0), i.e., Confirmed Cases (yˆi ) = - 0.003198 + 0.02566(0) + 0.9640(0) + 0.01045(0), the region will experience 31.98% decrease in number of confirmed cases. R2 of 1.0 implies 100% of variation in confirmed cases are explained by the model with 0% unexplained; making the model good and fit. This result gives policy makers and government first-hand information for productive policies that can avert the trend of infected cases of Covid- 19.

Statistics, Prediction, Multiple Linear Regression, Model, COVID-19

"Statistical Modelling for Prediction of Covid - 19 Cases in North - Central Nigeria", International Journal of Emerging Technologies and Innovative Research (www.jetir.org), ISSN:2349-5162, Vol.10, Issue 10, page no.f137-f146, October-2023, Available :http://www.jetir.org/papers/JETIR2310416.pdf

"Statistical Modelling for Prediction of Covid - 19 Cases in North - Central Nigeria", International Journal of Emerging Technologies and Innovative Research (www.jetir.org | UGC and issn Approved), ISSN:2349-5162, Vol.10, Issue 10, page no. ppf137-f146, October-2023, Available at : http://www.jetir.org/papers/JETIR2310416.pdf