• Shyju Mathew

Natural rubber in international market has slower growth in demand and huge increase in supply. This leads to an imbalance in demand and supply which also has led to the decline of natural rubber price in international markets. Therefore, it has become essential to study the natural rubber price in international markets. Forecasts of natural rubber prices are useful to the farmers, policymakers and industries for planning strategy, and making decisions. To attain this objective, in this study, Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is adopted for the forecasting the monthly price of Natural Rubber Viz. Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur. For testing stationarity, Autocorrelation function (ACF), Partial Autocorrelation function (PACF), Ljung-Box (LB) Statistic and Augmented Dickey Fuller Test (ADF) are used. For determining the best fitted model, we have employed AIC value. The residual of the fitted model is tested for Heteroscedasticity using Durbin Watson Test.

AIC, ARIMA, Forecasting, Stationarity

"Forecasting the price of natural rubber in International rubber markets", International Journal of Emerging Technologies and Innovative Research (www.jetir.org), ISSN:2349-5162, Vol.6, Issue 5, page no.300-303, May-2019, Available :http://www.jetir.org/papers/JETIRBM06047.pdf

"Forecasting the price of natural rubber in International rubber markets", International Journal of Emerging Technologies and Innovative Research (www.jetir.org | UGC and issn Approved), ISSN:2349-5162, Vol.6, Issue 5, page no. pp300-303, May-2019, Available at : http://www.jetir.org/papers/JETIRBM06047.pdf