• Harsha S
• Ismail B
• Sinchana N

Trade in areca nut is always a gamble and farmers are the worst hit. The price advantages are not transferred to farmers and the traders are making hay under such circumstances. Lack of market information and intelligence has pushed the farmers to the state of price takers. In order to protect the farmers and save those from distress sale of areca nut and to guide those in making proper decisions with regard to marketing we decided to carry out the analysis on price patterns of Areca nut. This study intended to carry out a detailed statistical analysis on Areca nut price with respect to two varieties namely, “cqca” and “New variety” related to Puttur areca nut market in Dakshina Kannada, Karnataka. We use some of the sophisticated statistical techniques like descriptive statistics, Transition probabilities for price rise and fall, Cluster analysis to identify and describe the price patterns. Further we adopted polynomial fitting and ARIMA class models to forecast the price series.

Transition probability, Clustering, Polynomial fitting, ARIMA Model.

"Statistical Analysis on Price Series of Areca nut", International Journal of Emerging Technologies and Innovative Research (www.jetir.org), ISSN:2349-5162, Vol.5, Issue 8, page no.993-1004, August-2018, Available :http://www.jetir.org/papers/JETIR1808446.pdf

"Statistical Analysis on Price Series of Areca nut", International Journal of Emerging Technologies and Innovative Research (www.jetir.org | UGC and issn Approved), ISSN:2349-5162, Vol.5, Issue 8, page no. pp993-1004, August-2018, Available at : http://www.jetir.org/papers/JETIR1808446.pdf