• GOPINATH M
• Bharath N
• Kavithamani M

Abstract : Cotton production plays major role in India, it gives the elementary raw material which is cotton fibre to the Cotton Industries to produce the yarn, from that the industries are producing cloths. The cotton seed called ‘Binola’ is using the some of the industries to produce ‘Vanaspathi’, also it is useful for milk cattle to get more milk. The main objective of this paper is to forecast the cotton Production in India. The Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were used to forecast the future value of the production of cotton in all over the India. The model parameters were found using maximum likelihood method, then the software Eviews 9 were used to predict the future value with the help of ARIMA models output. In this study the ARIMA (1,1,0) model were used to find out the smallest value of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).

Keywords: Forecasting, Prediction, Box-Jenkins, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Auto Regressive (AR), Moving Average (MA), Autocorrelation Function (ACF), Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF).

"FORECASTING COTTON PRODUCTION IN INDIA USING ARIMA MODEL", International Journal of Emerging Technologies and Innovative Research (www.jetir.org), ISSN:2349-5162, Vol.6, Issue 5, page no.91-99, May-2019, Available :http://www.jetir.org/papers/JETIR1905N15.pdf

"FORECASTING COTTON PRODUCTION IN INDIA USING ARIMA MODEL", International Journal of Emerging Technologies and Innovative Research (www.jetir.org | UGC and issn Approved), ISSN:2349-5162, Vol.6, Issue 5, page no. pp91-99, May-2019, Available at : http://www.jetir.org/papers/JETIR1905N15.pdf