• DR. NARENDRA SRIVASTAVA
• RAVINDRA SHRIVASTAVA
• BRAJESH KR SINGH
• UMAPATI SAHAY
• A.N JHA

BACKGROUND: An emergency situation is developed globally due to COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 virus developed in China, at first reported from its Wuhan province in last week of December’2019. It is declared pandemic by WHO in mid March’2020. As per the record of Government of India and WHO total number of COVID -19 positive cases in India was 8447 with 273 deaths and 1610909 positive with 99690 deaths in world on April’11,2020. The transmission of any infective disease is depended fundamentally on two epidemiological parameters, ie, Exponential Growth Rate and Basic Reproduction Number. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The data of COVID -19 positive cases considered for the present study is covered period from March’11, 2020 to April’ 11, 2020 and obtained from official website of the Government of India. The Basic Reproductive Number was calculated on basis of SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed) compartmented model. The formula used for calculation was R0 = 1 + K (Ṯ +Ṱ) + K2 (Ṯ Ṱ); where K represents exponential growth rate. The time intervals are stratified and randomized to neutralize the effect of confounding variables. OBSERVATION: The mean exponential growth/day is calculated as 0.16 with a range of 0.12 to 0.19. For the stratified period the minimum value of exponential growth rate was observed for March’11, 2020 to March’16, 2020 where as maximum value of exponential growth rate was observed from March’31, 2020 to April’05, 2020. The Basic Reproduction Number for COVID -19 is calculated as 1.96 for total period with a range of 1.7 to 2.13. When stratified period is considered, the minimum was observed for March’11, 2020 to March’26, 2020 and maximum was observed for March’31 to April’5, 2020. The cumulative value of COVID -19 positive patients from March’11 to April’11, 2020 and its exponential growth rate was slow up to March’31 and after that the growth curve increased sharply. DISCUSSION: The calculated value of exponential growth and Basic Reproductive Number of COVID-19 in India from March’11 to April’11, 2020 indicate that the problem of epidemics is under control. The exponential growth rate and Basic Reproductive Number is respectively lower than most of the countries of world due to implementation of doctrine of quarantine of exposed group and isolation of symptomatic patients by Government of India. The method is also supported by epidemiological model. CONCLUSION: The exponential growth rate and Basic Reproductive Number of COVID -19 SARS-Cov-2 in India is low in comparison to European countries and America. But 1.96 value of Basic Reproductive Number indicates that the possibility of epidemic has not been ruled out but its possibility exists. Hence the identification of probable exposed clusters, villages and states for COVID- 19 and its primary surveillance at population level and their quarantine and isolation are necessary.

KEY WORDS: COVID-19, BASIS REPRODUCTIVE NUMBER (R0), EXPONENTIAL GROWTH RATE, TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS, INDIA

"A DATA BASED EPIDEMIOLOGICAL STUDY OF COVID - 19 IN INDIA WITH REFERENCE TO BASIC REPRODUCTION NUMBER (R0) AND EXPONENTIAL GROWTH RATE (K).", International Journal of Emerging Technologies and Innovative Research (www.jetir.org), ISSN:2349-5162, Vol.7, Issue 4, page no.1098-1104, April-2020, Available :http://www.jetir.org/papers/JETIR2004346.pdf

"A DATA BASED EPIDEMIOLOGICAL STUDY OF COVID - 19 IN INDIA WITH REFERENCE TO BASIC REPRODUCTION NUMBER (R0) AND EXPONENTIAL GROWTH RATE (K).", International Journal of Emerging Technologies and Innovative Research (www.jetir.org | UGC and issn Approved), ISSN:2349-5162, Vol.7, Issue 4, page no. pp1098-1104, April-2020, Available at : http://www.jetir.org/papers/JETIR2004346.pdf