• Erna Setiawati
• Mardlijah

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In Indonesia, this case begin to develop since the end of February 2020 and until now there is still an increase in new infections. Several mathematical models of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia have been conducted, but the result are not yet fully accurate. This maybe due to different patterns in each region. The aim of this study is construct the Susceptible-Vaccinated-Infected-Recovered-Death (SVIRD) model for COVID-19, parameter estimation, stability analysis, and numerical simulation of the SVIRD model of the spread of COVID-19. The method used to estimate parameters is Kalman Filter, the analysis of the model uses the next generation matrix method to obtain the basic reproduction number and local stability of COVID-19 model. Numerical simulation model uses daily data of COVID-19 case in East Java. The estimation results of people infected by COVID-19 are close to actual value with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) value of 0.001%, so that the estimated value can be said to have a high level of accuracy. Therefore, the parameter estimation results can be used to predict the number of COVID-19 cases in East Java. In this study, the basic reproduction number is 1.139 which indicate that East Java is in endemic of COVID-19. Sensitivity analysis is performed on the basic reproduction number and it can be concluded that the most sensitive parameters are the birth rate, the infection rate, and the proportion of individuals vaccinated twice.

COVID-19, SVIRD Model, Basic Reproduction Number, Parameter Estimation, Kalman Filter, Sensitivity Analysis

"Mathematical Modelling of the Outbreak of COVID-19: A Case Study In East Java", International Journal of Emerging Technologies and Innovative Research (www.jetir.org), ISSN:2349-5162, Vol.9, Issue 1, page no.d723-d732, January-2022, Available :http://www.jetir.org/papers/JETIR2201394.pdf

"Mathematical Modelling of the Outbreak of COVID-19: A Case Study In East Java", International Journal of Emerging Technologies and Innovative Research (www.jetir.org | UGC and issn Approved), ISSN:2349-5162, Vol.9, Issue 1, page no. ppd723-d732, January-2022, Available at : http://www.jetir.org/papers/JETIR2201394.pdf