• Ms. I. Angel Agnes Mary
• Ms. K. Nalini

This paper analyzes and determines the Stochastic Modelling for Progress of Electricity Supply in India during the years from 1981 to 2020. India is the third largest producer of electricity in the world. The national electric grid in India has an installed capacity of 403.759 GW as of 30 June 2022. Renewable power plants, which also include large hydroelectric plants, constitute 39.2% of total installed capacity. This study considers Autoregressive (AR), Moving Average (MA) and ARIMA processes to select the appropriate ARIMA model for Progress of Electricity Supply in India. ARIMA (p, d, q) and its components autocorrelation function (ACF), partial autocorrelation function (PACF), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), normalized BIC and ARIMA (1,2, 2). Based on the selected model, Progress of Electricity Supply in India is projected to increase from 471.97thousand MW in 2021 to 690.74thousand MW in 2030 in India.

ARIMA, BIC, Forecasting, MAPE, Electricity Supply, RMSE.

"Stochastic Modelling for Progress of Electricity Supply in India", International Journal of Emerging Technologies and Innovative Research (www.jetir.org), ISSN:2349-5162, Vol.9, Issue 9, page no.e1032-e1037, September 2022, Available :http://www.jetir.org/papers/JETIR2209518.pdf

"Stochastic Modelling for Progress of Electricity Supply in India", International Journal of Emerging Technologies and Innovative Research (www.jetir.org | UGC and issn Approved), ISSN:2349-5162, Vol.9, Issue 9, page no. ppe1032-e1037, September 2022, Available at : http://www.jetir.org/papers/JETIR2209518.pdf