• Hanamesh
• Dr.Panduranga R

Between 2014-15 and 2025-26, India moved from being a heavy net importer of toys to a modest net exporter. This paper asks how much of that change can be attributed to the policy package introduced from 2020 onwards: the threefold rise in basic customs duty, compulsory certification under the Toys (Quality Control) Order, the National Action Plan for Toys, cluster programmes such as SFURTI and the Koppal Toy Cluster, and artisan support under PM Vishwakarma. Using secondary data from DGCI&S, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, the Press Information Bureau, the Annual Survey of Industries and UN Comtrade (via FICCI-KPMG), the study applies exponential trend regression, the Cuddy-Della Valle instability index, interrupted time series (segmented) regression, the Chow test, Welch's t-test, the Mann-Whitney U test, correlation and elasticity analysis, the Grubel-Lloyd index, the Hirschman-Herfindahl index and a contribution-to-growth decomposition. Exports of toys, games and sports requisites (HS-95) grew at a compound rate of 8.58 per cent a year in dollar terms and 12.00 per cent in rupee terms during 2015-16 to 2024-25. However, the segmented regression and the Chow test (F = 0.335, p = 0.728) find no statistically significant break in the export trend at 2020-21. The policy effect is visible instead on the import side, in the trade balance, which turned from a deficit of Rs. 1,445 crores in 2014-15 to a surplus of about Rs. 1,346 crores in 2025-26, and in the composition of exports, where toys proper raised their share of HS-95 exports from 43.6 to 60.9 per cent. The findings suggest that recent gains rest more on import compression than on a shift in export dynamism, and that benefits have reached organised producers faster than traditional artisans. The paper closes with suggestions for moving from protection to productivity.

Toy industry; Industrial policy; Import substitution; Quality Control Order; National Action Plan for Toys; Interrupted time series; Grubel-Lloyd index; India

"An Empirical Assessment of Central and State Government Initiatives in India's Toy Manufacturing Sector", International Journal of Emerging Technologies and Innovative Research (www.jetir.org), ISSN:2349-5162, Vol.13, Issue 10, page no.b203-b224, October-2026, Available :http://www.jetir.org/papers/JETIR2610123.pdf

"An Empirical Assessment of Central and State Government Initiatives in India's Toy Manufacturing Sector", International Journal of Emerging Technologies and Innovative Research (www.jetir.org | UGC and issn Approved), ISSN:2349-5162, Vol.13, Issue 10, page no. ppb203-b224, October-2026, Available at : http://www.jetir.org/papers/JETIR2610123.pdf