• Sagar Ketan Nagda
• S. S. Nagarkar
• B. L. Ayare
• P. M. Ingle
• V. G. More

With the advent of erratic climate change, the problem of quantification of its effects needs a solution. This study attempted to identify, calculate and tabulate the effects and extent of future rainfall and its resultant erosivity on the study area of Ratnagiri district in Maharashtra. The past observed data used as a baseline was obtained from IMD, and the future predicted data utilised was of high-resolution Global Climate Models (FGOALS-g3 and MPI-ESM) for the duration of 2015 - 2100. Both these models had their own historic data and future predicted data, bias-corrected using Extreme Gradient Boosting machine learning algorithm. The results were compared to past observed data, and the correlation (r) of both models exceeded 0.9. MPI-ESM model was chosen for further analysis. Two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 245 and 585) were chosen as climatic conditions for further analysis. The rainfall analysis of the future predicted data revealed a non-linear but increasing trend in overall annual rainfall amount and an equal growth in number of rainy days. Withdrawal dates shifted forwards by about a week by the end of the century. Rainfall erosivity factor calculation and analysis revealed the same non-linear positive growth. Overall, Rajapur taluka showed the greatest erosive potential, while Dapoli and Guhagar were among the least affected by this increase. Excessive precautions and conservation measures are suggested within the Rajapur and Mandangad talukas with complete priority to combat this increase in erosivity.

Erosivity factor, Rainfall trends, Python scripting, Bias Correction

"Study of Climate Change Impact on Rainfall Erosivity Factor for Ratnagiri District", International Journal of Emerging Technologies and Innovative Research (www.jetir.org), ISSN:2349-5162, Vol.13, Issue 10, page no.c845-c853, October-2026, Available :http://www.jetir.org/papers/JETIR2610284.pdf

"Study of Climate Change Impact on Rainfall Erosivity Factor for Ratnagiri District", International Journal of Emerging Technologies and Innovative Research (www.jetir.org | UGC and issn Approved), ISSN:2349-5162, Vol.13, Issue 10, page no. ppc845-c853, October-2026, Available at : http://www.jetir.org/papers/JETIR2610284.pdf